As Election Day in Canada looms on Monday, support for the two major parties has started to converge in the polls, yet the race appears to remain the Liberal Party’s to lose.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party now leads the Conservative Party 42 percent to 39 percent on average, according to the CBC’s poll tracker, a drop from the nearly seven percentage point lead that the Liberals had at the start of the campaign last month. Some polls are showing an even slimmer lead, but the Liberal Party still looks poised to win, pollsters say.

“Because of the distribution of the vote nationally, there is a little bit of distortion, not unlike what you will see in the U.S. with the Electoral College,” said Sébastien Dallaire, the executive vice president for Eastern Canada for Leger, a major polling firm.

But, he added, “even if the national vote were to be tied, it would probably mean that the Liberals won more” seats in the House of Commons, allowing them to form a government and giving Mr. Carney a full term as prime minister.

Polls could also underestimate national support for the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, but it still might not be enough to overcome the Liberals’ advantage.

The Conservative Party won the popular vote in the past two elections, but still lost to the Liberals both times. The Conservatives can poll well nationally, but still fall short because their support tends to be concentrated in a smaller number of parliamentary districts.